The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted above-normal minimum temperatures for most parts of India in November, with the exception of some areas in the northwest and west-central regions. This prediction is attributed to the strengthening El Nino conditions.
During a press conference in New Delhi, IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra stated that rainfall across the country in November is expected to be normal, ranging from 77-123 percent of the long-period average. However, above-normal rainfall is likely in certain areas, including the southernmost parts of peninsular India, most parts of northwest India, and many parts of east-central, east, and northeast India.
Current conditions indicate the presence of El Nino in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean and positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions in the Indian Ocean. Global forecasts suggest that El Nino conditions will persist during the season, while positive IOD conditions are expected to weaken in the coming months.
Despite this, Mr. Mohapatra mentioned that models indicate El Nino conditions are unlikely to continue into the next monsoon season. El Nino conditions, characterized by the warming of waters in the Pacific Ocean near South America, are typically associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India.
The Indian Ocean Dipole refers to the difference in sea surface temperatures between the western parts of the Indian Ocean near Africa and the eastern parts near Indonesia.
Overall, the IMD’s predictions point towards a warmer November for most parts of India, with normal rainfall expected across the country.
