Potential Implications of Increased Voter Turnout in Rajasthan

Both the BJP and the Congress are claiming victory in the Rajasthan assembly election, citing the marginally high voter turnout as evidence of their popularity. The final voting percentage for the 199 assembly seats in Rajasthan was 75.45%, with the highest turnout in Jaisalmer’s Pokhran at 88.23% and the lowest in the Ahore assembly seat at 61.24%. This year, more women (74.72%) voted than men (74.53%). The election results, which will be announced on December 3, will determine whether the Congress retains power or if the BJP takes over the Ashok Gehlot government.

Compared to the previous assembly election in 2018, Rajasthan saw an increase in voter turnout of 0.73%. This trend of higher turnout was also observed in other states like Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Mizoram, where elections were held simultaneously.

The main contest in Rajasthan is between the BJP and the ruling Congress. While the BJP contested on all seats, the Congress left one seat for its ally Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD). Other parties in the running include the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), CPI (M), Bharatiya Adivasi Party, Rashtriya Loktantrik Party, and AlMIM.

Political analyst K Subrahmanya cautions against reading too much into the higher turnout, suggesting that it may indicate a closely fought election rather than a decisive vote for or against the incumbent. The election campaign focused on issues such as appeasement politics, corruption, welfare schemes, women’s safety, and the demand for a caste census. Both the Congress and the BJP faced challenges from rebels within their parties, leading to a triangular contest in 31 seats.

The Congress relies on its traditional social base, including minority communities, Scheduled Castes (SCs), Mali, and Meena communities, for support. The BJP and Congress both claim support from the Mali community, which voted for the Congress in 2018. Districts in northern Rajasthan with Jat-dominated areas, such as Jhunjhunu, Churu, Sikar, and Nagaur, saw a high voter turnout. The Congress believes this is due to its farmer welfare measures, such as loan waivers and electricity subsidies.

The BJP, without a chief ministerial face, campaigned under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The party emphasized trusting the party’s symbol and allowing the democratic process to identify the chief ministerial candidate. However, veteran leader Vasundhara Raje’s presence in the campaign indicated that she still holds influence within the party. The BJP has several chief ministerial aspirants, including Rajsamand MP Diya Kumari and Alwar MP Mahant Balaknath Yogi.

The Gurjar community, present in eastern Rajasthan, may have voted for the BJP in large numbers due to their dissatisfaction with the Congress. Experts also suggest that smaller parties like the Rashtriya Loktantrik Party, BSP, Bharatiya Adivasi Party, Jannayak Janata Party, and Azad Samaj Party may influence the voting pattern in certain constituencies.

With both the Congress and the BJP in a closely fought competition, it is difficult to predict a clear winner. The smaller parties may play a significant role in the formation of the government.