Todde and Truzzu’s Lead Narrows, but the ‘Turnover’ Still Appears Illusory

Despite a narrow win for Alessandra Todde of the centre-left’s Campo Largo on 25 February over Paolo Truzzu, the centre-right in Sardinia hasn’t given up hope. Todde’s victory saw her become the first female president of the Region in the 75-year history of the autonomy. With 19 sections yet to be counted, Todde was leading by 2,615 votes, but this lead has now been cut to 1,626 votes according to unofficial data from centre-left sources.

The final two sections to be counted are from Silius (South Sardinia), which had a total of 450 voters. Even if all these voters cast their vote for Truzzu, it wouldn’t be enough to overturn Todde’s victory. The centre-right has raised concerns about alleged anomalies in the voting process and an unusually high number of invalid ballots.

Roberta Secci of AGI provides the most complete and accurate perspective on the situation of the ballots in Sardinia.@rob_agi @Agenzia_Italia pic.twitter.com/iJ6Z3qMkGy

— Lorenzo Pregliasco (@lorepregliasco)
March 2, 2024

The definitive data has not been officially reported, but some large municipalities have published their electoral results. For example, in Cagliari, where Todde won clearly, there were a thousand null ballots (out of 73,113 voters), plus 125 null votes. In Sassari, less than 200 out of 54,498 votes in the 136 sections scrutinized were null. The centre-right hopes for a turnaround, but this would require at least 14,000 invalid ballots and a gap of less than 900 votes between the two candidates. The definitive results will be announced by the Court of Appeal in Cagliari in no less than two weeks.

Truzzu has stated that they will compare the court’s data with their own and evaluate the situation. If there is a ground for an appeal, they will make one. However, this is not currently on the agenda as they do not believe the conditions are there and they do not have the minutes of the Court of Appeal.

Meanwhile, the centre-left is already looking at the composition of the new Council and the priorities of the first 100 days of the future Todde government, confident that even potential appeals would not halt the activity of the newly elected.

The turnaround? Unlikely scenario

According to Lorenzo Pregliasco, co-founder and director of YouTrend, a turnaround is an “unlikely scenario”. Pregliasco stated that Todde’s victory was a certainty during the long night of counting, despite the head-to-head that could be deduced from the partial data. He explained that there were too few sections missing for a change in result to be realistic. The evaluation of the missing sections made it clear that overturning the result would not have been plausible.

Pregliasco expects a close result, with a minimal gap between Todde and Truzzu, similar to other regional elections in the past.