A rare and powerful weather phenomenon known as a super El Niño is currently underway in the Pacific Ocean. This occurs when sea surface temperature anomalies in critical parts of the ocean warm to at least 2 °C above normal. Super El Niños have only been recorded three times since the 1950s, making them a relatively uncommon occurrence.
While El Niño events are often seen as similar, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) states that they can have varying impacts on weather patterns. Classic El Niño events typically bring stormy weather to the southern United States, while the northern part of the country experiences more stable conditions.
In the past, major El Niño events have led to above-average precipitation in certain regions. For example, the events in 1982-83 and 1997-98 resulted in more than 150 percent of average rainfall in California. However, the record-breaking El Niño of 2015-16 bucked this trend and actually brought less rainfall than usual.
The most recent El Niño event was declared by NOAA in June, marking the first global observation of such an event since 2019. Initially, the water temperature anomalies in the eastern and central Pacific were only .5-1 °C above normal, but they have since grown to between 1-2 °C, indicating a moderate event.
Determining the peak of the anomaly and whether it will reach strong levels is a challenging task. Various computer models are used to predict the cycles of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but they do not provide conclusive evidence for a significant El Niño event in 2023-24.
Another factor indicating that this El Niño pattern may be atypical is the amount of tropical activity observed worldwide. Typically, at least one ocean experiences decreased activity during an El Niño event, but in 2023, above-normal tropical cyclone formations have been observed in the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian oceans.
Episodes of El Niño and its counterpart La Niña usually last between nine and 12 months. However, there can be instances of double or triple dips, prolonging the status for several years.
In conclusion, the current super El Niño event is a rare occurrence with potentially significant impacts on weather patterns. However, its exact trajectory and intensity remain uncertain, making it a challenging phenomenon for forecasters to predict.
