The Congress party has suffered a major setback in the recent state elections, losing to the BJP in the Hindi heartland states. Despite winning in Telangana, the party failed to save its governments in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, and couldn’t capitalize on the anti-incumbency against the long-standing BJP government in Madhya Pradesh. This loss has significantly weakened the Congress’s position in the opposition INDIA bloc.
Although the victory in Telangana is positive for the Congress’s revival in southern India, the state only sends 17 MPs to parliament. In contrast, the three states that the Congress lost send a combined 65 MPs to parliament. This disparity in representation further undermines the Congress’s standing within the opposition alliance.
As a result of these losses, regional parties such as the Samajwadi Party, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), Trinamool Congress (TMC), and even the DMK, a Congress ally, are likely to demand a larger share of seats in their respective states. They will also strongly resist any attempts to project a Congress leader as the prime ministerial face of the alliance.
The deteriorating ties between the Congress and the Samajwadi Party, an important member of the INDIA bloc, have further complicated matters. Both parties have hinted at the possibility of going it alone in Uttar Pradesh, the most populous and politically crucial state in the country. This loss of bargaining power for the Congress has strained its relationships with other regional parties as well.
While the Congress is celebrating its victory in Telangana, it is important to note that the party is dependent on regional parties to challenge the BJP’s dominance. In states like Karnataka and Telangana, the Congress gained support at the expense of regional parties, without significantly affecting the BJP’s vote share. This pattern is reflected in the loss of support for the Congress among OBCs, SC-ST, and Muslims to regional parties in both the north and south of India.
The Congress’s inability to make inroads into the BJP’s traditional support base among upper castes and OBCs has been a longstanding challenge for the party. Despite its efforts to appeal to these sections, the Congress has struggled to win their support. This caste-based strategy has not yielded the desired results, as the state election outcomes have shown.
The Congress has called for a meeting of the INDIA bloc partners on December 6 in Delhi. However, this meeting is likely to be contentious, with some parties already criticizing the Congress for its electoral defeats and what they perceive as a “zamindari mindset.” Leaders from parties like JDU and Trinamool Congress have questioned the Congress’s leadership and suggested alternative leaders for the opposition alliance.
With Prime Minister Narendra Modi confidently predicting a hat-trick in the 2024 elections, the Congress finds itself back at square one after its recent victories in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka earlier this year. The party’s poor performance in the Hindi heartland states and its victory in Telangana against a regional party have further complicated the opposition alliance’s prospects.
In conclusion, the Congress party’s losses in the state elections have weakened its position within the opposition alliance and raised doubts about its ability to challenge the BJP’s dominance. The party’s dependence on regional parties for electoral success, coupled with its struggles to attract support from key sections of the electorate, pose significant challenges for its future prospects.
