The president of Myanmar, who was installed by the military after a coup in 2021, has issued a warning that the country is at risk of breaking apart due to the escalating fighting in Shan State. President Myint Swe made these remarks during an emergency meeting held by the ruling military council to address a series of coordinated attacks by anti-military insurgents, which have resulted in significant losses for the armed forces.
In Shan State, three ethnic insurgent armies, supported by other armed groups opposing the government, have successfully taken over numerous military posts, as well as border crossings and trade routes with China. This marks a major setback for the junta since it seized power earlier this year. The military, after two and a half years of battling the armed uprising it provoked with the coup, now appears vulnerable and potentially defeatable.
The government has responded to the attacks with airstrikes and artillery bombardments, resulting in the displacement of thousands of people from their homes. However, they have been unable to regain lost territories or bring in reinforcements. Among the hundreds of troops killed in the fighting is believed to be Brigadier General Aung Kyaw Lwin, the highest-ranking officer to die in combat since the coup.
What makes these attacks particularly significant is that they represent the first explicit alignment between well-armed insurgents in Shan State and the broader campaign to overthrow the junta and restore democratic rule. However, there are other factors contributing to the conflict. The insurgent groups in Shan State have long-held ambitions to expand their territory, and China, which typically acts as a restraining influence on the groups along its border with Myanmar, has not intervened to prevent this operation. This may be due to China’s frustration with the military government’s inaction regarding the proliferation of scam centers in Shan State, where thousands of Chinese citizens and other foreigners are forced to work.
The unrest in Myanmar began in 2021 when peaceful protests against the coup were violently suppressed by the military and police. Opposition activists, finding themselves with no other option, called for a nationwide armed uprising against the junta. Many fled to areas controlled by ethnic insurgents along Myanmar’s borders with Thailand, China, and India, hoping to gain access to training and weapons.
While some ethnic armies, such as the Karen, Kachin, Karenni, and Chin, aligned themselves with the National Unity Government (NUG), established by the deposed elected administration, others, including the groups in Shan State, did not. Shan State, known for its illicit narcotics production, has recently become a hub for casinos and scam centers. The region has been plagued by conflict and poverty since Myanmar’s independence in 1948, with different warlords, drug bosses, and ethnic rebels fighting amongst themselves and against the army.
Among the ethnic groups in Shan State, the Wa, with the backing of China, are the strongest and have maintained a ceasefire with the Myanmar military since 1989. The Kokang, Palaung, and Rakhine ethnic armies have formed the Brotherhood Alliance and have clashed with the military over territorial interests since the coup. These groups have provided support, training, and some weapons to dissidents from other parts of Myanmar.
The recent attack, codenamed Operation 1027, has been a significant turning point as the Brotherhood Alliance has made substantial progress. They have taken over more than 100 military posts, captured towns and border crossings, and cut off military reinforcements by destroying bridges. They have also surrounded the town of Laukkaing, where many scam centers are operated by junta-aligned families. The situation in Laukkaing has resulted in growing chaos, with people queuing for limited food supplies.
The Brotherhood Alliance’s ultimate goal, like that of the NUG, is to overthrow the military government. The NUG has praised the alliance’s success and sees it as a new momentum in their struggle. The NUG’s People’s Defense Forces, though less armed and experienced than the Shan insurgents, have launched their own attacks to take advantage of the military’s perceived weakness. They have captured a district capital from government forces for the first time.
The timing of the Brotherhood Alliance’s attack is noteworthy, as it followed an incident in Laukkaing that strained China’s patience with the junta. China has been pressuring the military government to crack down on scam centers run by Chinese syndicates. The families in Laukkaing, however, resisted shutting down a business that generated billions of dollars annually. An attempt to free trafficking victims held in Laukkaing resulted in guards from the scam centers killing several escapees. This incident prompted a protest letter from the Chinese municipal government, demanding justice for those responsible. Seizing the opportunity, the Brotherhood Alliance launched their attack, promising to shut down the scam centers to appease China.
While China has publicly called for a ceasefire, the alliance has not received a direct request from the Chinese government to stop fighting. Their larger objective is to gain as much territory as possible in anticipation of a potential collapse of the military government. This would position them favorably in negotiations for a future democratic rule in Myanmar.