Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah recently delivered a speech that caught the attention of observers in the US and the Middle East. During his address, Nasrallah distanced the Iran-backed Lebanese paramilitary group from Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7th. He emphasized that Iran had no involvement in the attack, stating that it was entirely Palestinian and unrelated to any regional or international issues.
Nasrallah also issued a warning to the US, stating that they would “pay the price” for failing to prevent Israel’s retaliatory campaign in Gaza from escalating into a larger regional conflict. He stated, “Threats against us are of no use. The one who will pay the price will be…your interests, your soldiers and your fleets.”
Furthermore, Nasrallah urged those who wanted Hezbollah to play a more significant role in the conflict to be patient. He stated that these were just the beginnings and that more actions would be taken against Israel from different fronts in the coming days.
According to Kim Ghattas, Nasrallah is waiting and watching to see if Hamas faces an existential threat from Israel that would require Hezbollah’s intervention. Ghattas argued that Iran would likely prefer to sacrifice Hamas rather than waste Hezbollah, unless Iran itself comes under threat. Nasrallah’s speech reaffirmed the strategy of appearing as “a warrior without declaring war” and offering support to Gaza without taking responsibility for the October 7th attack.
It is noted that Hezbollah and Iran stand to lose too much by entering the conflict directly, but they are still benefiting from it. Emile Hokayem from the International Institute for Strategic Studies argues that Israel is facing a quagmire, the US image is tarnished, and Arab states are paralyzed.
Nasrallah’s speech is likely to diminish fears within the Israel Defense Forces and the Pentagon that Hezbollah is preparing to open a second military front against Israel. He distanced his movement and Iran from Hamas, claiming they were not involved in planning the assault on southern Israel. Nasrallah described Hezbollah as part of a “support front” rather than a central player in the Gaza war.
Overall, Nasrallah’s speech demonstrated Hezbollah’s restraint in supporting Gaza without declaring full-scale war and highlighted the importance of using Hezbollah strategically in Iran’s broader conflict against Israel, the US, and its Arab allies.
