India-Canada Relationship at Its Worst Ever, Experts Say
The diplomatic relations between India and Canada are facing a deep crisis, with experts stating that it is the worst state the relationship has ever been in. Despite India’s recent decision to partially restore visa services for Canadians, officials and experts believe that repairing the frayed ties will be a long and difficult process.
The tensions between the two countries escalated when Ottawa claimed that Indian agents may have been involved in the murder of a Khalistani terrorist from Punjab. India strongly denies these allegations, but the mutual recriminations that followed have strained the relationship to its breaking point.
Although India’s partial restoration of visa services raised hopes for improved relations, experts and officials from both countries suggest that it is not a breakthrough. Neither New Delhi nor Ottawa have strong incentives to hasten a return to normalcy. Canada’s murder investigation is ongoing, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is focused on the upcoming national elections in May.
Michael Kugelman, the director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington, described the relationship as being in a deep crisis. He stated that while both sides may have an interest in preventing the crisis from spiraling out of control, there are no strong incentives to resolve it.
Ajay Bisaria, India’s former ambassador to Canada, mentioned that the relationship is in a “de-escalation phase” through quiet diplomacy. However, even with the partial restoration of visa services, the movement of tens of thousands of Indians and people of Indian origin to Canada is expected to be hindered.
The crisis between the two countries was triggered when Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau claimed that there were credible allegations linking Indian government agents to the murder of a Khalistani advocate in Canada. Canada expelled India’s intelligence chief in Ottawa, and India responded by halting 13 categories of visas for Canadians and reducing Canada’s diplomatic presence in India.
While India recently announced its decision to resume issuing visas under four categories, Indian officials emphasized that it is not a thaw and people can interpret it however they want. Another official mentioned that Ottawa must take the first step towards climbing down from its position.
The relationship between India and Canada has a long history of tensions over Sikh separatism, dating back to the 1980s. PM Modi, who belongs to a Hindu-nationalist party, is unlikely to back down from his position, especially with the upcoming elections. Despite the modest de-escalation in visa restrictions, experts caution that most of the retaliatory measures remain in place, and there is still a lot of anger on both sides.
Experts believe that a pause is necessary for cooler heads to prevail and for the relationship to be repaired. However, they also acknowledge that it will take time and a concerted effort from both sides to bring the relationship back on track.
