Mississippi State Senator Dean Kirby is running for re-election this year without facing any major-party opposition. This lack of competition is not unique to Kirby, as more than four-fifths of Mississippi’s legislative candidates will have no major-party challengers in the upcoming general election. This trend reflects a decline in competition for state legislative seats across the country.
According to new research, the reasons behind this decline are multifaceted and extend beyond voter satisfaction with incumbents. Steven Rogers, a political scientist at Saint Louis University, suggests that in some states, there are so many uncontested seats that one party secures the chamber before the election even takes place. This lack of choices undermines the fundamental principles of democracy.
In Mississippi, the percentage of legislative seats without major-party opposition in the general election has risen steadily from 63% in 2011 to 85% this year. Additionally, the percentage without Republican or Democratic challengers in the primary or general election has grown from 45% to 57% over the same period.
Political gerrymandering is one reason for this decline in competition. When one political party holds a significant majority in the legislature and district boundaries are drawn to favor that party, lawmakers are less likely to face challengers. Lower salaries for lawmakers also contribute to decreased competition, as does the reluctance of same-party candidates to run in districts where the president from their party is unpopular.
All these factors are at play in Mississippi. Republicans currently hold a dominant majority in the legislature, and most districts are packed with voters favoring one party. Lawmakers earn a salary of $23,500, and public opinion polls show President Joe Biden with low approval ratings, making it challenging for fellow Democrats to attract challengers.
Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) communications director, Abhi Rahman, explains that candidates are less likely to run races they believe they will lose. The DLCC is investing a few thousand dollars in legislative races in Mississippi and Louisiana, focusing its largest spending ($2.2 million) on legislative races in Virginia. In Virginia, both parties see a path to a legislative majority, and the races are seen as a test of their messaging ahead of the 2024 national elections.
In contrast to Mississippi, the percentage of Republican or Democratic candidates in Virginia without major-party opposition has declined from 61% in 2011 to 28% this year. This shift is attributed to the redrawing of district boundaries by court-appointed experts after a bipartisan commission failed to reach a consensus.
The lack of competition in Mississippi has led to some unique situations. Three Democratic lawmakers will be succeeded by their sons in uncontested races this year. Additionally, first-time Republican candidate Andy Berry is running unopposed for a state Senate seat after the incumbent chose not to seek reelection. While Berry is grateful for the guaranteed victory, he recognizes the challenge of generating voter turnout without an opponent.
Overall, the decline in competition for state legislative seats raises concerns about the ability of American voters to hold their elected representatives accountable. It highlights the need for addressing issues such as political gerrymandering and creating a more competitive electoral landscape.
