The upcoming winter is expected to be one of the strongest El Niño seasons in nearly a decade, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The last time El Niño had such a significant impact was during the 2015-2016 winter, which turned out to be the warmest on record for the contiguous U.S.
NOAA scientists are using past moderate-to-strong El Niño winters as a reference to predict what the weather will be like for winter 2022-2023. However, it’s important to note that no two El Niño winters are exactly alike. Generally, robust El Niño years bring wetter and colder weather to the southern regions, while the northern regions experience drier and warmer conditions.
NOAA predicts that this winter will follow this pattern. However, it’s worth mentioning that “wetter” doesn’t always mean more snow, especially in areas where temperatures are consistently above freezing. Additionally, snowfall levels can vary greatly even between cities within the same state.
To help people prepare for the winter season, NOAA has released new maps that indicate where snow is more or less likely during strong El Niño seasons, including the upcoming one. It’s important to remember that these maps are based on historical data and do not provide specific forecasts of snowfall amounts. Many other factors, such as atmospheric and climatological fluctuations, also contribute to actual snowfall.
Michelle L’Heureux, one of the scientists involved in creating these maps, acknowledges that while El Niño increases the likelihood of certain weather outcomes, it doesn’t guarantee them.
Like the Old Farmer’s Almanac, NOAA’s snowfall maps should be taken as fun tools to study and compare with actual winter conditions. They should not be relied upon for making significant investments in snow removal tools or personnel.
In a typical winter, the jet stream pushes south, resulting in drier conditions in the northwestern and northeastern states. The southern regions, particularly in the southwest, tend to experience wetter and snowier conditions.
The strength of El Niño plays a significant role in shaping our weather patterns. According to NOAA, the following regions and cities may experience higher than usual snowfall or rainfall this winter:
On the other hand, the following regions may have drier winters compared to recent years:
Ultimately, only time will tell which areas will be digging out from significant snowstorms and enjoying picturesque winter landscapes.
