New Delhi: The latest exit polls are indicating a mixed outcome for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress in the heartland states. According to the polls, the BJP is expected to win in two out of three states, while the Congress may secure victory in one. In Chhattisgarh, Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel is likely to retain his position, but Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot might face defeat. There is also a strong possibility that Madhya Pradesh could once again go to the BJP.
However, the biggest upset could occur in Telangana, where K Chandrasekhar Rao’s Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) has been in power since the state’s inception in 2014. The NDTV Poll of Polls shows the Congress leading in 62 out of the state’s 119 seats, while the BRS is expected to win 44 seats. The BJP and Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM may secure seven and five seats respectively. The majority mark is set at 60 seats.
As for Mizoram, the exit polls indicate a hung assembly, with six exit polls predicting different outcomes. Two exit polls suggest that the ruling alliance of the BJP and the Mizo National Front (MNF) have a slim chance of victory, while one exit poll predicts a sweep for the new party Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM).
However, it is important to note that exit polls are not always accurate in predicting election results. In Chhattisgarh, for example, an aggregate of nine exit polls predicts a second term for the Congress, with the number of seats ranging from the early 40s to mid-50s. The majority mark in the 90-seat state is 46. The NDTV Poll of Polls indicates that the Congress may win 49 seats, while the BJP may secure 38 seats.
In neighboring Madhya Pradesh, the exit polls suggest bad news for the Congress, as it may not be able to unseat Shivraj Singh Chouhan. The BJP’s three-time Chief Minister came back to power in 2020 despite a defeat in 2018, thanks to the defection of Congress leader Jyotiraditya Scindia and his loyalists. An aggregate of nine exit polls indicates that the BJP may win 124 out of the state’s 230 seats, while the Congress may secure 102 seats.
The most definitive verdict comes from News 24-Today’s Chanakya, which gives the BJP 151 seats and the Congress 74 seats. Other exit polls predict a close contest.
These elections were held amid speculation of anti-incumbency against the BJP, which has been in power in the states for a considerable period. In Rajasthan, where the incumbent is usually voted out, seven out of nine exit polls predict a comfortable victory for the BJP. Only two exit polls give the Congress a chance of scraping through. Most exit polls expect the BJP to win over 100 seats in the 200-member assembly.
In Telangana, the Congress sees a potential sweet spot, as it won a significant victory in neighboring Karnataka earlier this year, defeating the BJP. The party conducted an energetic campaign in Telangana under the leadership of its young state chief, Revanth Reddy. Telangana has been out of reach for the Congress since 2014, despite its role in the formation of the state. However, with K Chandrasekhar Rao heading the Bharat Rashtra Samithi, there seemed little possibility of dislodging the party from power.
The results of these elections, dubbed the semi-final before next year’s general election, will be counted on Sunday. The outcome is expected to have a significant impact, not only on the BJP’s chances of securing a third straight term in 2024 but also on the Congress’ position within the INDIA alliance, potentially strengthening its position ahead of the Lok Sabha polls.
