Shivraj Singh Chouhan, the incumbent chief minister of Madhya Pradesh, is favored by voters over Congress’ Kamal Nath, according to a recent NDTV-CSDS Lokniti Poll. However, the margin is narrow, with just a four percentage point difference. The survey, conducted in 30 of the state’s 230 assembly constituencies, involved over 3,000 participants and took place in the week starting October 24.
The results of the poll highlight the positive perception of the Chouhan government’s performance, with people believing that roads, electricity, and hospitals have improved under his leadership. However, the survey also reveals some concerns, as people are evenly divided on whether women’s safety has improved or worsened, and 36% believe that the condition of Dalits has worsened.
The Congress party can take solace in the fact that the survey showed a narrow margin when comparing the performance of the Kamal Nath government from 2018 to 2020 with the current Chouhan government from 2020 to 2023. While 36% felt that the Chouhan government performed better, 34% favored the Nath government.
The survey also indicates the significant influence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the country’s elections, as the Central government received a higher satisfaction rating than the state government. 65% of respondents expressed satisfaction with the performance of the Central government, while only 29% expressed dissatisfaction.
When it comes to key issues for the upcoming election, price rise and unemployment were identified as the top concerns by an equal number of participants. Farmer discontent and the government recruitment scam were also significant issues for the surveyed individuals.
The poll also revealed insights into voting patterns, with the BJP receiving a slightly higher share of the women’s vote, while men were evenly split between the BJP and the Congress. The BJP had an advantage in urban areas, while the Congress performed better in rural areas. The Congress also had a higher percentage of support among the poor, while the BJP gained more support from the middle class and wealthy individuals.
The BJP seemed to lag behind in four specific groups – tribals, Muslims, Dalits, and farmers – where the Congress had a higher percentage of support. However, the BJP had an advantage among the Other Backward Classes (OBCs), with 50% of OBC respondents favoring the BJP.
Overall, the survey provides valuable insights into the preferences and concerns of voters in Madhya Pradesh. The upcoming state elections, scheduled for November 17, will determine whether the incumbent chief minister, Shivraj Singh Chouhan, will continue in his role or if the Congress’ Kamal Nath will regain power.
