Scientists who predict solar weather have admitted that their previous forecast for the current solar cycle was incorrect. They now believe that we are approaching a peak in solar activity that will be more explosive than initially predicted. Earlier this year, it was reported that the solar maximum would hit harder and sooner than expected.
The sun goes through cycles of tranquility, known as solar minimum, to a peak of solar activity called solar maximum, where dark sunspots cover the sun and powerful solar storms occur. The current cycle, Solar Cycle 25, began in early 2019. Initially, experts predicted that it would peak in 2025 and be underwhelming compared to previous cycles. However, other scientists soon realized that the sun was not following these predictions. In June of this year, it was revealed that solar activity had been increasing faster than expected, and experts forecasted that the solar maximum would likely arrive before the end of 2024.
On October 25, the experts finally issued a revised prediction for Solar Cycle 25, acknowledging that their initial estimations were no longer reliable. The new update states that solar activity will increase more quickly and peak at a higher level than previously predicted. The solar maximum is now expected to begin between January and October of next year.
Several signs this year indicated that the solar maximum would arrive sooner and be more active than expected. These signs include a 20-year sunspot peak, massive X-class solar flares, extensive aurora displays at lower latitudes, rising temperatures in the upper atmosphere, the appearance of airglow, and the disappearance of noctilucent clouds.
It is unclear why the initial predictions were wrong or why it took scientists so long to update their forecasts despite warning signs. In 2020, a group of scientists used historic sunspot and magnetic field data to predict a more active and earlier solar maximum.
A more active solar maximum could cause disruptions on Earth, such as radio blackouts, damage to power infrastructure, radiation to airline passengers and astronauts, and the potential loss of GPS and internet satellites. It could also disorient animals that rely on Earth’s magnetic field for navigation, such as large whales and migrating birds.
To prevent further confusion, the experts will now shift to a more flexible forecast system that will be updated monthly. They expect this new experimental forecast to be more accurate and continuously updated as new sunspot observations become available. This change marks a significant shift in the prediction process for Solar Cycle 25.
