El Niño, the climate phenomenon characterized by warming of the Pacific Ocean, has arrived and is expected to last through early winter, with a high likelihood of extending into spring, according to the Climate Prediction Center. While the dividing line between wetter and drier regions varies each year, the southern portion of the United States, including California, is expected to experience increased precipitation during an El Niño winter. Conversely, the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley are likely to be dry and warm.
However, the impact of El Niño on winter weather patterns is not guaranteed. Michelle L’Heureux, a meteorologist with the Climate Prediction Center, explains that El Niño tends to suppress snowfall across most of North America. While regions like the Sierra Nevada mountain range in California and the southern Rocky Mountains may experience additional snowfall, areas such as the Great Lakes, parts of New England, the northern Rockies, and the Pacific Northwest generally see reduced snowfall during El Niño winters.
The effects of El Niño are more pronounced during strong episodes, which are expected this year. Northern California, the Four Corners states, the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles, and the southern Appalachia region may see increased snowfall. Conversely, states like Oregon, Washington, New York, and Pennsylvania are more likely to experience below-average snowfall during a powerful El Niño event.
It is important to note that while El Niño increases the likelihood of certain climate outcomes, it does not guarantee them. Additionally, the impact of climate change has led to fewer snowy winters in many parts of the United States over time. However, unexpected snowstorms can still occur during an El Niño year.
According to the Climate Prediction Center’s latest outlook, there is a 75% to 85% chance of a “strong” El Niño this winter, with a 30% chance of it being one of the strongest on record.
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