The Complex Equation of Identity Politics in Rajasthan

Hotels in Udaipur, a popular wedding destination in India, allowed their local staff to take a two-hour break on November 24, 2023, in order to cast their votes during the state elections. However, the staff members were required to return to work after casting their ballots, and many have already done so. This year, between November 23 and December 15, a staggering 3.5 million weddings are expected to take place in India, generating a business worth Rs 5 trillion that cannot be overlooked. With both weddings and elections being significant events, the focus now shifts to the two main political parties, the ruling Congress and the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and how they will fare in the state of Rajasthan.

According to Naresh Singh, a manager at the century-old Anand Bhavan hotel, Rajasthan is known for practicing vote banking and appeasement, making the contest in the state highly competitive. Singh emphasizes the importance of both weddings and elections, as the outcome will heavily depend on the tough competition between the Congress and the BJP. The demographic situation in Rajasthan is diverse, with different communities residing in different regions. As a result, the verdict in Rajasthan often ends up being a combination of diverse contests.

The BJP has been countering the Congress by playing divisive identity politics. Home Minister Amit Shah recently shared statistics at an election rally, claiming that the BJP has done nearly four and a half times more for Rajasthan compared to the Congress. Shah provided documents to support his claim that Rs 2 lakh crore was given to Rajasthan during the Congress’ 10-year rule at the Centre, while Rs 8.7 lakh crore was given during the BJP’s nine-year rule. Shah also highlighted the high number of crimes against women and Dalits in Rajasthan, stating that the BJP is focused on addressing these issues.

The BJP has also brought back former Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje, who was sidelined for the past five years. Raje has been encouraged by the party high command to contest from Jhalara Patan, and her loyalists have been given tickets. However, Raje is not the BJP’s chief ministerial candidate, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi has emphasized that the party only has one face, which is the Lotus symbol. The challenge for the BJP now is to consolidate caste votes in Rajasthan.

Various factors come into play in the state’s politics. The Jat community, which constitutes around 15 percent of the population, has the potential to swing as many as 200 seats, primarily in the eastern regions of the state. The Scheduled Castes votes also hold significant weight, as they make up approximately 18 percent of the population and are concentrated in the Kota-Bharatpur belt. Additionally, the Muslim community, comprising 9 percent of the population, can play a decisive role in the elections. The Congress is heavily relying on the Muslim community to secure a swing in their favor.

Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot, in an effort to garner support, has made several promises to the electorate, such as providing cooking gas cylinders at a subsidized rate, offering an honorarium to female heads of families, and providing laptops to first-year students in government colleges. Gehlot is eyeing the 2024 national elections and hopes to strengthen the Congress’ position in Rajasthan.

Gehlot’s patch-up with former deputy chief minister Sachin Pilot, who had openly criticized the government on corruption charges, adds another dimension to the elections. Gehlot knows that winning margins could be slim and that any misstep could cost him the opportunity to form a government again. The December elections will have a direct impact on the national elections in 2024.

The BJP is considering replacing Raje with Diya Kumari, an MP from Rajasamand and a member of the erstwhile Jaipur royal family. Kumari is contesting from the Vidyadhar Nagar constituency, which was previously held by five-time MLA Narpat Singh Rajvi. The BJP believes it can increase its percentage of votes and change the narrative in their favor.

In the 2018 elections, the Congress secured 39.30 percent of the votes, while the BJP obtained 38.77 percent, indicating a close margin. The BJP is banking on its performance in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, where it won 24 out of 25 seats, while the Congress failed to secure any seats.

Voting in Udaipur is slowly picking up, and after the elections, the focus will shift back to the bustling wedding season. Udaipur is known for its extravagant weddings and is a significant player in India’s wedding market.

In conclusion, the outcome of the Rajasthan elections will have a significant impact on the political landscape in the state and will set the tone for the upcoming national elections. The Congress and the BJP are both determined to secure victory in Rajasthan for their respective parties.