The US military has reported an increase in unsafe intercepts of its planes by Russian and Chinese jets, indicating a desire to challenge the US and assess its capabilities, according to US commanders. In recent months, Russian and Chinese jets have crowded, buzzed, and even collided with US aircraft in various hotspots around the world. These encounters reflect a greater willingness by Russia and China to challenge the US amid heightened tensions. US officials have highlighted several dangerous incidents, including the interference of Russian jets with a US MQ-9 drone over the Black Sea in March and unsafe behavior by Russian jets around US drones and manned aircraft over Syria in July. The Pentagon has also released photos and videos of coercive and risky intercepts of US aircraft by Chinese jets over the past two years.
The frequency and nature of these interactions mark a new development, according to Gen. Mark Kelly, who oversees the organizing, training, and equipping of US Air Force units. He stated that five years ago, there was no routine interaction between US and Chinese fighters, nor weekly, if not daily, merging of US and Russian fighters over Syria. Kelly attributes this change to the desire of Russia and China to test their aircraft and pilots against the best in the world, as well as to challenge the post-World War II rules-based construct. He also notes that Russia and China feel confident in their ability to compete in this arena.
These encounters are occurring amidst Russia’s ongoing attack on Ukraine, which has become the largest ground war in the region since World War II. Additionally, the US and China are engaged in widening geopolitical competition in the Western Pacific, where their military forces operate in close proximity. US Air Force officials emphasize that while the US still has an advantage in aircraft technology and pilot experience, this lead is shrinking due to the aging of its aircraft and weapons. They highlight the need for modernization to maintain air superiority in conflicts.
Russia and China have heavily invested in their own air forces in recent decades. China now possesses the world’s third-largest aviation fleet, including 1,900 fighter jets, while Russia’s air force has been largely unaffected by the war in Ukraine. Both countries aim to test their aircraft and pilots against US capabilities.
While Russia has shown some favorable shifts in behavior over Syria, China’s behavior has not changed significantly. There have been recent instances of unsafe intercepts by Chinese fighter jets, including one that put a US B-52 bomber in danger of collision over the South China Sea. US officials attribute the risks in these encounters to China’s refusal to engage in military-to-military discussions and the absence of communication channels. However, recent high-level meetings and the attendance of US defense officials at a security conference in Beijing suggest that communication channels are reopening. Nonetheless, China continues to object to US military operations in the Western Pacific, indicating that tense encounters may persist.