Ukrainian troops have achieved a significant victory by securing a foothold on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River, pushing back Russian forces and diverting their attention from other battlegrounds in eastern Ukraine. This success comes as Ukraine’s counteroffensive, launched in June, has turned into a brutal battle of attrition, with neither side making substantial progress. As winter approaches, it is unlikely that any surprising maneuvers will occur across the 600-mile front in eastern Ukraine.
However, Ukraine’s new front in the southern Kherson region, where troops have successfully landed across the Dnipro River and held their ground, could threaten Russia’s control of Crimea. This development is promising, as it may force Russia to reconsider its forces in Crimea and disrupt its logistics chain.
While Ukraine maintains a tactical advantage, it faces the challenge of a long war against a larger Russian army. The situation resembles the grinding, slugging matches of World War I, where progress is measured in yards rather than miles, and casualties are high.
The advance in Kherson is troubling for Russia, as it threatens their control of Crimea and may lead to further offensive operations by Ukraine. However, Ukraine has yet to maintain a position on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River, and most of its counteroffensive has been focused on other regions.
Russian forces are also continuing their offensives against Ukraine, aiming to seize Luhansk and the eastern Donetsk region. In Donetsk, the town of Avdiivka is a major point of contention, with Russian forces launching a renewed offensive but reportedly suffering heavy losses. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasizes the defense of Avdiivka as crucial to his military objectives and believes Russia is already losing soldiers and equipment in the area.
Russian forces have recently made incremental advances north of Avdiivka, particularly targeting a strategic coke plant. The U.K. Defense Ministry predicts that Russian forces would suffer significant personnel losses if they attempt to assault the facility.
As the fall muddy season in Ukraine comes to a close, the harsh winter may slow down the fighting but also provide opportunities for ground vehicles to advance. However, Ukraine’s top general has publicly admitted that the counteroffensive will not see a breakthrough anytime soon.
The upcoming U.S. primary elections in January may complicate the politics of Ukraine support for Kyiv’s most important backer. While a larger Russian army is more equipped for a long game, Russian President Vladimir Putin appears willing to wait it out. Former President Donald Trump, the favorite for the GOP presidential nomination, is not expected to provide firm backing for Ukraine if elected.
Experts express little optimism for Ukraine, as there is no perceptible momentum on either side, and the balance of favorable outcomes seems to favor Russia. Ukraine is facing difficulties in developing momentum, while Russia has no prospect of a game-changing event in the near future.
