Haley Takes Center Stage in Iowa Caucus History’s Most Expensive Ad Battle

In the lead-up to the Iowa caucuses, political strategists are grappling with the question of whether their candidates have enough momentum to secure a victory. While there have been Cinderella stories in the past, such as Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum, who surged in Iowa but failed to secure the nomination, history shows that late-breaking surges are difficult to achieve. Only four winners of competitive Iowa GOP caucuses have gone on to become the Republican nominee since 1976.

This year, Republican campaigns have spent a staggering $105 million on ads in Iowa alone, with a significant focus on Nikki Haley, who has risen to become a legitimate second-place contender. Haley aims to position herself as the strongest alternative to Donald Trump, setting her up for a stronger finish in New Hampshire and the South Carolina primary. With almost $4.6 million in advertising scheduled before the caucus, Haley dominates the local airwaves, while Trump’s campaign has spent less than $1 million.

Meanwhile, Ron DeSantis, whose popularity seems to be declining, has booked about $1.7 million in advertising. Tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy has canceled his remaining ad buys in Iowa after $1.8 million in spending failed to make an impact. Chris Christie, who struggled to gain support in Iowa in the past, is focusing on New Hampshire, where he finished sixth eight years ago.

In the 2016 Iowa caucuses, the Democrats spent a record-breaking $70 million on ads. However, this year’s total ad spending for the White House race is estimated to surpass $2.7 billion nationally. Iowa’s reputation for being a state where candidates can break through without massive spending may no longer hold true.

Despite Haley’s dominance in advertising, it may not fundamentally change the race. Trump maintains a significant lead in Iowa, South Carolina, and New Hampshire. Haley’s support in Nevada is still in the single digits, while Trump enjoys a substantial advantage. Polling in Iowa is notoriously challenging, given the nature of the caucuses, but no candidate with a double-digit lead at this point has ever lost.

Criticism of Trump seems to be coming solely from Chris Christie, with Haley and DeSantis avoiding direct attacks. However, Christie’s anti-Trump strategy has not worked, as he failed to qualify for the next debate. Time is running out for Haley and DeSantis to make up ground in Iowa, and their skirmish on the airwaves may not be enough to overtake Trump. The real prize may be securing a ticket out of Iowa into New Hampshire.

Overall, this race has the potential to mirror the 2016 election, with Trump’s alternatives spending too much time competing against each other instead of focusing on challenging the incumbent. Winners know how to punch up and stay on top, and failing to do so could result in Trump securing the nomination once again.