The US Department of Defense has raised concerns about the development of a new Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army. Unlike traditional ICBMs, which are armed with nuclear warheads, this new missile would be armed with conventional explosives. While the idea may seem enticing to China, it poses significant risks and challenges.
The Pentagon is well aware of the dangers associated with conventional ICBMs, as it previously attempted to develop a similar weapon but ultimately abandoned the project due to the potential for catastrophic consequences. The main concern is that if the US were to launch a conventional ICBM in a conflict, nuclear-armed countries would detect the launch and be faced with a difficult decision. They would have to determine whether the US was launching a nuclear first strike and how long they could wait for clarification before launching their own nuclear weapons.
A non-nuclear ICBM presents a nuclear nightmare, whether it comes from the US or China. The Pentagon’s latest annual report on Chinese military capabilities warned that conventionally-armed ICBMs would pose significant risks to strategic stability. This is particularly concerning because the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force already poses a serious threat with its existing arsenal, which includes 350 nuclear ICBMs, 2,500 medium- and short-range conventional ballistic missiles, and 300 air-launched cruise missiles.
While the US has invested heavily in missile defense systems to counter shorter-range missiles and cruise missiles, these defenses are not effective against ICBMs. The speed at which an ICBM travels makes it difficult to intercept, and the US Navy’s successful tests against ICBM-like targets have been criticized for not accurately representing the true capabilities of a real ICBM.
The US Defense Department acknowledges that it cannot reliably shoot down Chinese conventional ICBMs. If China were to develop and deploy such a weapon, it would have the ability to threaten conventional strikes against targets in the continental United States, Hawaii, and Alaska. This would leave the US with no choice but to respond with its own ICBMs, as the risk of a potential nuclear strike would be too great to ignore.
The lack of international treaties or diplomatic leverage makes it challenging for countries outside of the Chinese Communist Party to address this issue. There are limited options available to compel China to reconsider the development of this powerful military capability.
One alarming possibility is that if China deploys a conventional ICBM, the United States may feel compelled to do the same. In this dangerous scenario, the fear of a nuclear misunderstanding could drive both countries to risk a devastating conflict.
As the situation unfolds, the danger becomes increasingly clear. However, finding a solution that can effectively address the risks associated with conventional ICBMs remains uncertain.
