Congress Decimates KCR in Rural Areas Despite His Urban Victory

Six months ago, it would have been unthinkable to imagine the defeat of K Chandrashekar Rao (KCR) and his Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) in Telangana. However, recent data reveals that KCR and the BRS were voted out by rural voters, which ultimately led to the victory of the Congress party.

In the rural areas of Telangana, the Congress won 56 out of 80 seats, compared to only 15 seats in 2018. On the other hand, the BRS won only 19 seats, a significant decrease from the 62 seats they won in the previous election. This rural win for the Congress played a crucial role in securing their victory, as 60 seats are required to obtain a majority in the state.

The defeat of the BRS can be attributed to various factors, including agrarian discontent, the perception of family rule, and a focus on Hyderabad. Although the BRS government did make efforts to develop rural areas, their emphasis on economic growth seemed to favor urban areas. This mistake was reminiscent of the downfall of the Telugu Desam Party in 2004 when Chandrababu Naidu, who was known for envisioning Hyderabad as a global city, was defeated by rural voters. Similarly, KCR and his son KT Rama Rao made the same error.

The urban-rural divide becomes even more apparent when examining the results in the Greater Hyderabad region. Out of the 24 seats in this region, the BRS won 16, while Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Musalmeen (AIMIM) secured seven seats. The BJP only managed to win one seat, and the Congress was completely routed. In the 2018 election, the Congress had won two seats, but both winners switched to the BRS and won as BRS candidates this time.

However, in the eight urban seats outside of Greater Hyderabad, the Congress gained three seats while the BRS lost three. This suggests that the BRS becomes weaker as one moves away from Hyderabad.

Telangana can be broadly divided into northern districts, such as Adilabad, Nizamabad, Warangal, and Karimnagar, which are traditional BRS strongholds, and southern districts like Khammam, Nalgonda, and Mahbubnagar, which are traditional Congress areas. The Congress and the BJP have managed to breach the BRS bastion in the northern districts. Out of the 17 seats in this region, the BRS won all in 2018 but was reduced to five seats this time, with the Congress winning nine and the BJP winning three. This trend is concerning for the regional party, especially with the 2024 Lok Sabha polls approaching.

In the three southern districts analyzed, the Congress swept all 14 seats, completely wiping out the BRS which had won eight seats in 2018.

Therefore, the Congress was successful in securing its strongholds and making inroads into the BRS heartland, with the exception of the capital city. However, the Congress’s victory margin is narrow, which has raised concerns within the party about attempts at poaching. The Congress will have to focus on maintaining party unity, given the internal contradictions and the many aspirants for the Chief Minister’s post.

This situation provides an opportunity for the BRS to play a strong opposition role in the state, but it will face challenges due to the national might of the BJP, the resurgent Congress in the south, corruption allegations, and the ongoing Enforcement Directorate case against KCR’s daughter.

The future of the regional party will depend on the strategies employed by KTR and KCR in the coming days.

(T.M. Veeraraghav is the Executive Editor of NDTV)

Disclaimer: These opinions are solely those of the author.