The Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections held on November 17 have resulted in a close contest, as predicted by experts and exit polls. Shivraj Singh Chouhan, the incumbent chief minister of the state since 2005 (excluding a brief period between 2018 and 2020), is seeking a fifth term. However, his party, the BJP, has not officially declared him as the candidate for the top job this time. On the other hand, the Congress campaign is being led by Kamal Nath, the state unit president, with support from senior party leader Digvijaya Singh.
The state has a total of 230 seats, and a minimum of 116 seats is required for a majority. According to the exit poll conducted by Republic TV-Matrize, the BJP is predicted to win between 118 and 130 seats, giving them an advantage. In contrast, the Congress is projected to emerge victorious in 97-107 seats, while other parties are expected to secure 0-2 seats. However, the exit poll conducted by TV 9 Bharatvarsh-Polstrat favors the Congress, predicting that they will win between 111 and 121 seats, with the BJP restricted to 106-116 seats. Other parties are projected to win between zero and six seats.
Dainik Bhaskar’s exit poll also gives a slight edge to the Congress, predicting that they will win 105-120 seats, while the BJP is expected to win 95-115 seats. Other parties are likely to secure between 0 and 15 seats, suggesting that they may play a role if neither the BJP nor the Congress attains a majority.
An outlier in the exit polls is News 24-Today’s Chanakya, which predicts a clear victory for the BJP. The ruling party is projected to win 151 seats, while the Congress is expected to be reduced to 74 seats, falling more than 40 seats short of the majority mark. It is important to note that exit polls often have a margin of error.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has led the BJP campaign, but the party has refrained from confirming whether Shivraj Singh Chouhan will continue as chief minister if they secure victory in Madhya Pradesh. Additionally, the BJP has fielded seven MPs, including union ministers Narendra Singh Tomar, Prahlad Patel, and Faggan Singh Kulaste, for the Assembly polls. Speculation has arisen that the BJP may be considering alternatives to Chouhan for the top job. However, experts argue that Chouhan, popularly known as ‘Mama’, remains the party’s most favored leader in the state.
For Kamal Nath, the state unit chief of the Congress, these elections hold significant importance following the rebellion by Jyotiraditya Scindia in 2020, which led to the collapse of his government after just 15 months. When asked about the rebellion, Nath expressed confidence in the Congress’ ability to regain power and stated that they do not require Scindia’s support to do so.
