In January, a noticeable trade surplus of US$797 million was recorded in the economy. This was primarily due to a 9.6% growth in exports compared to the same month last year, coupled with a significant 14.3% drop in imports.
As per the data reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC), exports amounted to US$5,398 million. The boost was mainly attributed to the upsurge in the export of primary products and manufactured goods of agricultural origin, which faced a severe cut in January 2023 due to drought. Concurrently, imports summed up to US$4,601 million, a decrease resulting from the drop in the activity level.
The trade balance surplus starkly contrasts the deficit of US$443 million recorded in the same month of 2022. However, it falls short of the US$1,018 million achieved in December.
Elizabeth Bacigalupo, the head of macroeconomics at Abeceb, believes that the balance aligns with expectations. She asserts that January sets the tone for the trade balance throughout the year, anticipating a significant but potentially lower-than-expected surplus. This trend is expected to prevail in the first half of the recession, with imports on a steep decline due to the weakness of domestic demand and activity level.
Despite expecting a slightly higher trade balance, Bacigalupo points out that the export of manufactured goods of industrial origin was weaker. She cites significant drops in the exports of chemical products and plastic materials as contributors to this dip, as many companies reported problems with their supply of sector input. In terms of imports, all categories, excluding cars and capital goods, witnessed a sharp fall.
Claudio Caprarulo, an economist at Analytica, highlights that January was the first month with the new SEDI system, which replaces the previous SIRA. He suggests that this could be why the drop wasn’t more substantial. For instance, while the monthly variation in imports was nominally positive, it registered a slight drop when adjusted for seasonality.
Economist Gabriel Caamaño interprets the decline in the values and quantities of imports as a bad sign for the economic activity in January 2024, although he acknowledges the recovery of exports due to the successful harvest.
As for the trade balance forecast for the remainder of the year, Bacigalupo predicts a high trade surplus, potentially close to US$15 billion. She asserts that this would provide the government with a basis to buy dollars and improve its net reserves position from negative levels.
However, Analytica’s projections suggest a sustained fall, arguing that lower consumption and investment levels, along with a costlier dollar, will offset the liberalization of the system that the government is undergoing. They remind that the payment of imports continues to be restricted.
In contrast to a negative balance of US$6,923 million in 2022, the country recorded a trade deficit of US$6,925 million last year. This was due, in part, to the government’s restricted access to dollars for import payments between mid-2022 and December, given the shortage of monetary reserves.
