Over 60% of American Adults Question Joe Biden’s Mental Capacity

An increasing number of American adults are expressing doubts about the memory and mental sharpness of 81-year-old President Joe Biden. This casts his next State of the Union address in a new light, as it could be seen as a live audition for his potential second term.

According to a new poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, about 60% of respondents have little or no confidence in Biden’s mental ability to effectively carry out his duties as president. This figure shows a slight increase from January 2022 when about half of those polled expressed similar worries.

Similarly, nearly 60% also express a lack of confidence in the mental capacity of former President Donald Trump, who is now 77 years old and a favorite among Republicans.

The upcoming election is shaping up to be a showdown between two men who are significantly older than the typical retirement age. The next president will likely face the challenges of managing global conflicts, dealing with domestic emergencies, and working with a dysfunctional Congress.

Biden will likely address these and other challenges in his State of the Union address on Thursday, as he aims to convince Americans that he deserves another term.

Prior to the address, only 38% of American adults approve of Biden’s performance as president, while 61% disapprove. The number of Democrats who approve of his performance (74%) significantly outweighs the number of independents (20%) and Republicans (6%) who feel the same way. However, there is widespread dissatisfaction with Biden’s handling of various issues, including the economy, immigration, and foreign policy.

About 40% of Americans approve of how Biden is handling healthcare, climate change, abortion policy, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. However, fewer people are satisfied with his approach to immigration (29%), the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (31%), and the economy (34%). These issues are likely to be addressed in his speech to Congress.

Nearly 60% of Americans believe the national economy has worsened to some extent since Biden took office in 2021. Only 30% of adults believe it’s improved under his leadership. Despite this, more than half of respondents feel positive about their personal finances.

Many respondents are deeply pessimistic about their options for the upcoming November elections due to the advanced age of the candidates and the associated risk of cognitive decline.

Paul Miller, 84, said both Biden and Trump are too old to serve as president.

Miller, who voted for Trump in 2020, does not plan to vote for either candidate in the upcoming election, hoping that another candidate will emerge.

Biden is under increased pressure due to unflattering descriptions of his memory in a special counsel’s report. The report did not recommend criminal prosecution of Biden for mishandling classified material, unlike Trump, who was accused of having classified material in his Florida home. The report described Biden’s memory as “fuzzy,” “blurry,” “defective,” “poor,” and having “significant limitations.”

Biden has attempted to address these concerns by making light of his age and pointing out Trump’s own mistakes. However, his age remains a liability that has overshadowed his policy achievements on infrastructure, manufacturing, and climate change.

About one-third of Democrats express little or no confidence in Biden’s mental ability, down from 14% in January 2022. Only 40% of Democrats express a great deal or a lot of confidence in Biden’s mental capacity, and about 30% express “some” confidence.

Independents are significantly more likely to express a lack of confidence in Biden’s mental ability (80%) compared to Trump’s (56%).

Generally, Republicans are more confident in Trump’s mental abilities than Democrats are in Biden’s. In the survey, 59% of Republicans express extreme or very high confidence in Trump’s mental abilities. Another 20% express some confidence, and 20% express little or no confidence.

Both Democrats and Republicans overwhelmingly believe that the other party’s likely nominee lacks the mental capacity to serve as president. About 90% of Republicans believe this about Biden, and a similar proportion of Democrats believe this about Trump.

Biden’s policies have yet to make a significant impact on the everyday lives of Americans.

Sharon Gallagher, 66, is concerned about inflation. She voted for Biden in 2020, but doesn’t believe he has done enough for the economy. She also thinks Trump is too quick to anger. She doesn’t feel qualified to judge his policies because she doesn’t pay enough attention to politics.

Justin Tjernlund, 40, believes Biden is still going strong, but even if he were on the decline, he has many people to help him get the job done. Tjernlund voted for Trump in 2020 and plans to do so again because he finds Trump “interesting” and “something new.”

Given the age of both candidates, Greg Olivo, 62, plans to focus on Vice President Kamala Harris and whoever Trump chooses as his running mate, if he is nominated. He believes it’s likely that the vice president will become president within the next four years.

The survey of 1,102 adults was conducted from February 22-26, 2024, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.