In his opening speech of the legislative year, Javier Miley proposed to sign “The Ten Principles of the New Argentine Order” in May with governors and legislators. These principles, he suggests, could provide a foundation for an Argentina currently experiencing one of the deepest crises in its history.
The principles include non-seizure of property, non-negotiable fiscal balance, limiting public spending to 25% of GDP, tax and labor reform, pension reform to enable private retirement, a political reform, commitment with the provinces to advance the exploitation of natural resources, and opening to international trade. Furthermore, Milei-Caputo’s management is centered on the belief that “the fight against the fiscal deficit is the mother of all battles”.
However, there is doubt about the sustainability of the adjustment in public accounts. The fiscal surplus of January was largely based on liquefaction and a “chainsaw” on the “caste”. Now, with the weakening power of liquefaction on public spending, the question arises on how the fiscal adjustment will continue.
Through these 10 points, President Milei aims to build a political bridge to navigate this difficult period of adjustment. One of the government’s challenges between March and May will be to lower the monthly inflation to single digits while presenting exporters with an appealing real exchange rate to settle corn and soybeans.
Another significant issue is the growing exposure of banks’ portfolios to the public sector. According to reports, this situation will act as a dead weight in recovery as almost the entire supply of bank deposits is placed in public debt with no credit to finance working capital or to feed the demand for durable goods and investments.
Despite these challenges, the government has seen some initial progress in restoring macroeconomic stability. The deputy managing director of the IMF, Gita Gopinath, met with President Milei and Minister Luis Caputo and advised them to proceed pragmatically to ensure social and political support, which is essential to guarantee the durability and effectiveness of the reforms.
However, doubts persist about the sustainability of the January fiscal surplus, which was the product of a 39.1% drop in spending. It remains to be seen how the government will navigate these challenges and whether the proposed principles will help Argentina recover from its current crisis.
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