According to recent polling conducted by national Republicans, Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego is leading in Arizona’s U.S. Senate race, with potential GOP nominee Kari Lake trailing behind. Incumbent Senator Kyrsten Sinema is far behind both candidates, according to the poll. The results were presented to fellow Republicans by Sen. Steve Daines, who heads the National Republican Senatorial Committee. He stated that Sinema is pulling votes from the GOP, not from Democrats.
During the meeting, Sen. Lindsey Graham expressed confidence that Lake would win the party’s nomination and urged Republicans to support her campaign. Sinema’s spokesperson declined to comment on the poll, and Lake’s campaign spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment.
Hannah Goss, a spokesperson for Gallego’s campaign, embraced the poll’s results, stating that it shows Gallego is best positioned to win the Senate race and continue his work for Arizonans.
The poll, conducted last week, showed Gallego with 41% support, Lake at 37%, and Sinema with 17%. The NRSC’s communications director noted that the poll has a 4.4 percentage point margin of error, suggesting that the race is a statistical tie.
Despite the poll’s uncertainties, Sinema currently appears to be a distant third. Other polls have shown Gallego narrowly leading or tied with his opponents. However, the Republican field has been uncertain throughout the year, with candidates like Mark Lamb and Blake Masters receiving some attention.
Lake is considered the favorite to win the GOP nomination, thanks in part to an endorsement from former President Donald Trump and her popularity among Republicans. However, she is also seen as beatable in a general election, given her loss in the 2022 gubernatorial race and skepticism from national Republicans.
In terms of approval ratings, a poll conducted by Morning Consult found that Sinema’s net approval rating has improved since she left the Democratic Party to become an independent. While her standing with Democrats has fallen, her approval among independents and Republicans has increased. Overall, 42% of respondents approve of Sinema’s performance, while 44% disapprove.
Sinema’s campaign reportedly distributed a memo to potential donors outlining a path to victory that relies on winning over Arizona’s independent voters and gaining more support from Republicans than from her former party.
It is important to note that approval ratings do not necessarily indicate voting intentions. The Arizona Senate race is still taking shape, and Sinema has not officially announced whether she plans to seek re-election for a second term.
In conclusion, the latest polling suggests that Gallego is leading in Arizona’s U.S. Senate race, with Lake trailing behind and Sinema far behind both candidates. However, the race is still uncertain, and the GOP field has been fluid throughout the year.
