This winter, the El Niño weather pattern is expected to be as strong as it has been in nearly a decade, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The last time El Niño had such an impact was during the 2015-2016 winter, which turned out to be the warmest on record for the contiguous U.S. While scientists at NOAA use previous El Niño winters to make predictions for the upcoming winter, each El Niño season is unique.
During robust El Niño years, the southern part of the U.S. tends to experience wetter and colder weather than usual, while the northern part experiences drier and warmer conditions. This is what NOAA anticipates for the upcoming winter. However, it’s important to note that “wetter” doesn’t always mean more snow, as many areas are typically above freezing temperatures. Additionally, snowfall can vary greatly even within the same state.
To provide some insight into where snow is more or less likely during El Niño-strong seasons, NOAA has released new maps. These maps take into account factors beyond El Niño, such as atmospheric and climatological fluctuations, but they are not forecasts of specific snowfall amounts. Michelle L’Heureux, one of the scientists behind the maps, emphasizes that while El Niño increases the odds of certain climate outcomes, it doesn’t guarantee them.
Just like the yearly Old Farmer’s Almanac, these maps should not be relied upon for making preparations or investments in snow removal tools or staff. They are meant to be studied for fun and compared to the actual weather patterns experienced at the end of the season.
In a typical winter from January to March, the jet stream pushes south, leading to drier conditions in northwestern and northeastern states. The southern states, particularly in the southwest, tend to be wetter and snowier. The strength of El Niño plays a significant role in shaping these weather patterns.
According to NOAA, regions and cities that may experience higher than usual levels of snowfall or rain this winter include the Pacific Northwest, the northern Rockies, and parts of the Midwest and Northeast. On the other hand, some regions may have drier winters compared to recent years, such as the southern Plains and parts of the Southeast.
Ultimately, only time will reveal which areas will be digging out from significant snowfall and enjoying picturesque winter scenery.
