Stefan Lukasik, the former head of the Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) of the military, once shared with me a secret study funded by the Pentagon. This study, conducted over five years ago, focused on the concept of irresponsible nuclear entrepreneurs. We discussed the Office of Net Assessments (ONA), a department within the Pentagon known for its long-range analyses and predictions of military capabilities of nations like the Soviet Union and China. Lukasik led several studies for this office, one of which explored the possibility of a private company or a wealthy individual building a nuclear weapon.
The study aimed to understand the operations a private organization would need to undertake to build and sell nuclear weapons. The results showed that such an endeavor could be highly profitable.
A billion dollar investment to produce the first bomb
I was intrigued and asked Lukasik if he could share a copy of the study with me. A few days later, I received the four-volume report, completed in 2013. The report provided a detailed blueprint, including staffing requirements and cash flow projections, of how such an operation could potentially function.
According to the study, the initial investment required to produce the first bomb would be a staggering one billion dollars, with a timeline of five years. The report made the operation sound like something out of a James Bond movie, with an evil corporation setting up legitimate business fronts and seemingly independent subsidiaries responsible for separate parts of the weapons production process in various locations around the world.
Not just countries anymore
When I first read the study in 2018, the concept seemed interesting but highly implausible. After all, nuclear weapons require substantial facilities, significant budgets, and specialized technical expertise. However, the landscape has dramatically changed in the past decade. Privately funded companies and entrepreneurs are increasingly influencing the military balance, and the Pentagon acknowledges that private capital is now the primary funding source for crucial technologies.
The barrier to entry is falling low
Entrepreneurs like Elon Musk are leveraging the government’s massive investments in missiles and nuclear technology instead of starting from scratch. The study was designed to explore what could happen when the barrier to entry for military systems development becomes significantly lower.
Threats that come from the availability of technology
While the idea of a private company building and selling nuclear weapons may still seem far-fetched to some, the report was intended to provoke thought about potential threats arising from the commercial availability of technology. It is now easier to privatize biological weapons than nuclear bombs because fewer facilities are involved in their production and they are harder to detect.
