The Congress faces a tough challenge in the state of Rajasthan as exit polls suggest that the BJP is set to defeat them and return to power. Rajasthan has a history of voting out the ruling party in every election for the past 30 years. The state voted in a single phase on November 25, and the results will be announced on Sunday.
According to the exit polls, five out of six predictions so far give the BJP a comfortable lead. The Republic TV-Matrize poll predicts a massive 115-130 seats for the BJP, while the Times Now-ETG poll gives them 108-128 seats. On the other hand, neither poll gives the Congress more than 7 seats, with Times Now predicting a range of 56 seats.
The Rajasthan Assembly has 200 seats, but polling was held for only 199 seats after the death of the Congress’ Gurmeet Koonar. The majority mark is set at 101 seats.
Other exit polls such as Jan Ki Baat, P-Marq, and TV9 Bharatvarsh-Polstrat also give the BJP a minimum of 100 seats, with the first two polls even giving them an upper margin of over 120 seats. Only India TV gives the Congress an edge, predicting 94-104 seats for them compared to the BJP’s 80-90 seats.
It is important to note that exit polls often get it wrong. In the previous election in 2018, the Congress won 100 seats while the BJP won 73 seats. Despite almost equal vote shares, the Congress benefited from the anti-incumbency factor. In 2013, the BJP won 163 seats and 45% of the votes, highlighting the strength of the anti-incumbency sentiment. The Congress capitalized on the BJP’s 90-seat loss, gaining 79 seats. However, the Congress did not secure a majority on its own and needed support from Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party to form the government.
Overall, the exit polls indicate a challenging road ahead for the Congress and a likely return to power for the BJP in Rajasthan.
