Vladimir Putin encountered numerous challenges during the war in Ukraine. However, two years into the conflict, the tide appears to be turning in his favor, and his grip on power remains unshaken. Initially, Ukraine’s resistance led to Russian forces retreating from Kiev. Later in 2022, their retreats from Kharkiv and Kherson were a blow to Putin, while it brought praise to Kiev. Additionally, continued attacks on Russian targets in the Black Sea have been a persistent problem. Nevertheless, recent weeks have brought some positive news for Putin. Even though US-led sanctions aimed at cutting Russia off from the global finance system caused a stir, the International Monetary Fund predicted last month that Russia’s GDP would grow by 2.6 percent in 2024 – more than twice its previous forecast.
As per Ralph Carter, a political science professor at Texas Christian University, Putin’s local position is stronger than ever. He managed to rally public support behind the leadership and called for Western sanctions. He also neutralized the local opposition with the demise of Alexei Navalny and Yevgeny Prigozhin, sending a message to Russians that if it could happen to them, it could happen to anyone.
Moscow has been successful to some extent in finding new markets for its valuable exports, notably China and India. According to John Hall, a law professor at Chapman University in California, Putin’s position now seems stronger than six months ago. Efforts to isolate Russia economically haven’t been as successful as anticipated, mainly because of India’s readiness to purchase Russian oil. Russia’s performance in the Ukraine war has improved in recent months, having secured arms supply pipelines from North Korea, Iran, and China, while Ukraine is dealing with a severe weapons and manpower shortage.
With no resolution to the deadlock in the US Congress over additional funding for Ukraine, Putin has also benefited from former president Donald Trump‘s rhetoric, which has been embraced by a portion of the Republican Party that opposes further military support for Kiev. Hall added that Trump’s use of his influence to undermine ongoing support for Ukraine is a policy that solely benefits Putin.
Trump’s criticism of NATO, which last month included a call for Russia to attack its members who fail to meet the minimum two percent spending requirement, has also played into Putin’s hands, said Ken Osgood, an expert on American-Russian relations and professor of history at the Colorado College of Technology. He remarked that fracturing NATO’s unity has been a goal of every Russian leader since Stalin.
Jennifer Kiva, a professor of government at Franklin and Marshall College, told Newsweek that Putin is now clearly in a stronger position in Ukraine than he has been in over a year. She added that his grip on power appears to be more consolidated than ever and it’s unlikely to crumble in the short to medium term.
However, according to Beth Knobel, the former Moscow bureau chief for CBS News, the Russian withdrawal from the war and the high casualty toll will eventually damage Putin’s standing. She believes that Putin is currently in a weaker position than he was two years ago due to the losses Russia has incurred due to the war in Ukraine.
The arrest of those who publicly express support for Navalny is a testament to Putin’s fear of a public uprising, similar to those that have occurred in other nations. Randall Stone, director of the Sklany Center for Polish and Central European Studies at the University of Rochester, suggested that Putin would take measures to avoid the kind of street protests that have overthrown leaders in post-Soviet countries like Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, and Ukraine.
Stone also highlighted that Putin is highly insecure and the Wagner rebellion showed how precarious his hold on power is. Konstantin Sonin, a Russian-born economist at the University of Chicago, noted that Navalny’s death is a significant win for Putin in the short term. However, he also pointed out that Putin has backed himself into a corner with no apparent way out.
Sonin said, “I don’t think there is any escape from the situation he is in. He can’t stop the war. He can’t stop the oppression. It’s not sustainable in the long run, so I guess it’s bringing him closer to his end.”