Nikki Haley’s Mission in New Hampshire: Demonstrating Her Political Strength

Nikki Haley Faces an Uphill Battle Against Trump in New Hampshire Primary

Nikki Haley has finally achieved her goal of going head-to-head with Donald Trump in the Republican primary. However, her chances of success may be slim, and her campaign could be short-lived. Despite outlasting numerous male contenders, Haley’s third-place finish in Iowa served as a wake-up call about the difficulty of outmaneuvering Trump’s outsized ego within the Republican Party. Since leaving Iowa, Haley has intensified her rhetoric as she tries to convince fellow Republicans to derail Trump’s seemingly inevitable return. But the odds are stacked against her. The latest poll shows Haley trailing Trump by 19 points, with only a small fraction of former contenders’ supporters shifting their allegiance to her.

Haley’s decision to take on Trump has come with a deluge of critiques, but she remains undeterred. She refused to participate in the final debates in New Hampshire unless Trump showed up. Her strongest support could come from independent voters in New Hampshire, who make up the largest political party in the state. In 2016, 42% of participants in the Republican primary were unaffiliated voters, and Trump carried them at the same level as self-identified Republicans. Haley is hoping to persuade these voters not to repeat the same mistake. A recent poll indicates that a majority of likely Republican voters believe Trump did something wrong or illegal on January 6, 2021, and 91% of those voters support Haley. Among independent voters, Haley enjoys a 10-point advantage over Trump. However, it’s worth noting that replicating the success of Senator John McCain, who won over independent voters in New Hampshire in 2000, is not an easy feat.

Historically, no Republican candidate has won both the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries back-to-back. New Hampshire voters are known for demanding personal connections with candidates and are skeptical of insincere interlopers. This may pose a challenge for Haley, especially considering that a majority of likely Republican primary voters in the state believe Biden is an illegitimate President who won through voter fraud. Haley has impressed unaffiliated strategists with her campaign, but winning in a state engulfed in Trump fever remains an uphill battle.

While Haley is optimistic about her chances and her allies are already planning for future contests, she still needs to prove that she can deliver voters. Fundraising is crucial for her campaign, and her super PAC supporters are working hard to raise money as a protest against Trump’s return to power. However, ultimately, it will depend on whether donors see Haley as a viable contender and believe she can achieve her goals. The endorsements of prominent South Carolina figures, such as Senator Tim Scott, Governor Henry McMaster, and Representative Nancy Mace, may influence donors’ decisions. The outcome of the New Hampshire primary will quickly reveal whether Haley has a chance against Trump. For Haley, there is no place to hide if her campaign goes sideways.

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