Hezbollah is taking measures to minimize its losses and prepare for a potential long-term conflict with Israel, according to three sources familiar with the group’s thinking. In the past three weeks of border clashes, Hezbollah has lost 47 fighters to Israeli strikes, which is about a fifth of the number killed during the 2006 war between the two sides. Most of these casualties have been due to Israeli drone strikes. In response, Hezbollah has revealed its surface-to-air missile capability for the first time, claiming to have downed an Israeli drone on Sunday. The group has been actively working to counter Israeli drones, which have been targeting its fighters along the border. The use of anti-aircraft missiles is one of the steps taken by Hezbollah to reduce losses.
Hezbollah has been strategically containing the clashes to the border zone while indicating its readiness for an all-out war if necessary. Meanwhile, Israel, which is currently engaged in a conflict with Hamas in the Gaza Strip, has stated that it is not interested in a conflict on its northern frontier with Lebanon but will respond with devastating force if provoked.
Hezbollah, Iran’s most powerful ally in the region, has been warning Israel that it poses a more significant threat than ever before, with an expanded arsenal including drones and rockets capable of hitting all parts of Israel. Since October 7, both Hamas and a Lebanese Sunni Islamist faction called Jama’a Islamiya have fired rockets from southern Lebanon into Israel. However, Hezbollah has refrained from launching rockets deep into Israeli territory, opting instead to target visible Israeli positions across the border using guided anti-tank missiles, such as the Kornet.
While Hezbollah’s tactics have helped contain the conflict thus far, they require its fighters to be close to the border, making them more vulnerable to Israeli military attacks. Some fighters also underestimated the threat posed by Israeli drones due to their experience fighting insurgent groups in Syria, where they did not face such advanced technology. The technical superiority of Israeli drones has taken a toll on Hezbollah’s fighters, resulting in a significant number of casualties.
The clashes between Israel and Hezbollah have mostly remained within a narrow band of land along the border, typically within a three to four-kilometer range. However, Israeli shelling has expanded in recent days, including a strike on Jabal Safi, a mountainous area approximately 25 km from the border. Hezbollah has not commented on this particular strike.
The death toll of 47 Hezbollah fighters in this relatively contained conflict has shocked the group’s supporters. Funeral processions for the fallen fighters have been broadcasted on Hezbollah’s al-Manar television, with the coffins draped in the group’s yellow and green flag. Hezbollah’s leader, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, released a letter referring to the fallen fighters as “martyrs on the road to Jerusalem.”
The situation remains tense as both sides continue to exchange fire, and the risk of further escalation remains a concern.
